| Tuesday, 8 July a.d. 2008 | |||||||
| Caroline feels better today. They moved her to a still | |||||||
| lower grade of critical care, the Red Pod (sounds like a science | |||||||
| fiction movie). Oxygen levels are good & this afternoon she | |||||||
| will be moved to a regular care floor! She's not as mad as | |||||||
| she has been, and she's really improving. Thank you all | |||||||
| for your continuing prayers. | |||||||
| Time to re-arrange our outlook for everything. | |||||||
| Try to picture this: short counter-trend corrections in | |||||||
| metals & stocks, offering opportunities to shuck | |||||||
| stocks and buy metals. Dollar index continues to trade | |||||||
| sideways, fooling friends & enemies alike. | |||||||
| The Dow climbed 152.25 today, taking stocks up to | |||||||
| 11,384. S&P gained even more. Evidently stocks have | |||||||
| washed out their negative sentiment and intend to | |||||||
| rally. First target is 11,650, then 11,750, then 12,200. | |||||||
| The Dow will surprise everyone if it proves able | |||||||
| to close above 12,200. At least, it will surprise me. | |||||||
| Any rally in stocks offers you a chance to swap stocks | |||||||
| for silver & gold. Don't miss this, probably your last, chance. | |||||||
| SILVER & GOLD dropped today. Gold's low came at | |||||||
| 912.05 and silver's at 1744 cents. I never saw that price, | |||||||
| I saw 1752, so if you didn't grab it fast, you didn't get it. | |||||||
| Here's my guess about what we'll see. Silver & gold | |||||||
| will spend a few days correcting, rally once again | |||||||
| nearly to the last high, then drop once more, casting | |||||||
| everyone into consternation. Low might carry as low | |||||||
| as the 50 day moving average (now at 1714), but that | |||||||
| guess doth NOT constitute a recommendation to wait | |||||||
| to buy when it reaches that level. The possible gain of | |||||||
| buying 50 - 60 cents lower is not worth the risk of | |||||||
| missing silver below 1800 altogether. (Ditto gold, | |||||||
| for the chance of dropping to 905. Not worth missing | |||||||
| it at 915.) | |||||||
| Somebody pointed out to me that some analyst | |||||||
| made the statement, "Gold will outperform silver." | |||||||
| Maybe in the short run, but not over the bull market's | |||||||
| life. Before it ends, indeed, about the time it ends, you | |||||||
| will see only sixteen ounces of silver buy one ounce of gold. | |||||||
| Because the gold/silver ratio drops faster when stocks | |||||||
| are doing well, I am somewhat nervous about silver in | |||||||
| the short run. But all sorts of things could happen (that is, | |||||||
| government surprise parties) to buoy stocks up briefly. | |||||||
| But long term, I'm as sure that silver will outperform | |||||||
| gold as I am about any future event. | |||||||
| On this day in 1932 the Dow Jones Industrial Average | |||||||
| reached its low for the Great Depression at US$41.22, | |||||||
| at that time almost exactly two (2) ounces of gold. | |||||||
| On 3 September 1929 the Dow peaked at US$381.17 | |||||||
| (18.439 oz of gold), so in about 2-1/2 years the Dow | |||||||
| lost 89% of its value. (Remember that then, a | |||||||
| ounce of gold equalled $20.6718, gold dollars.) | |||||||
| Measuring in the same gold dollars, on 25 August 1999 | |||||||
| the Dow peaked at G$925.42 (44.767 oz). Today it | |||||||
| closed at G$255.44 (12.357 oz), for a loss of 72.4%. | |||||||
| Sort of takes out the mystery when you use an | |||||||
| unchanging yardstick, doesn't it? | |||||||
| By the way, before it ends the Dow will again trade | |||||||
| at two ounces of gold or 32 ounces of silver -- or less. | |||||||
| Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- | |||||||
| -- Silver and gold must be bought. | |||||||
| - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger | |||||||
| To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a | |||||||
| very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's | |||||||
| primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up | |||||||
| targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, | |||||||
| targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated | |||||||
| assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trenddown. | |||||||
| Footnotes: | |||||||
| The US DOLLAR INDEX is a average exchange rate for the US dollar against the | |||||||
| Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish | |||||||
| Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure | |||||||
| of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies. | |||||||
| The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in | |||||||
| gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend | |||||||
| of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against | |||||||
| stocks in a trend that should last 15 - 20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to | |||||||
| the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to | |||||||
| 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for | |||||||
| investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its | |||||||
| August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a | |||||||
| G$80 - G$20 (4 - 1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow). | |||||||
| The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to | |||||||
| buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces. | |||||||
| The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, & shows | |||||||
| how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us | |||||||
| the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend | |||||||
| is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver | |||||||
| ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5 - 10 years. That implies that | |||||||
| silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When | |||||||
| both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the | |||||||
| rally. | |||||||
| 8-Jul-08 | Price | Change | CLOSES | ||||
| Gold, $/oz | 921.30 | (5.40) | -0.6% | ||||
| Silver,cents/oz | 17.880 | 0.042 | 0.2% | ||||
| Gold/SilverRatio | 51.53 | -0.424 | -0.8% | ||||
| Silver/Gold Ratio | 0.01941 | 0.000158 | 0.8% | ||||
| Platinum | 1934.80 | -26.70 | -1.4% | ||||
| Palladium | 441.00 | -6.50 | -1.5% | ||||
| S&P 500 | 1,273.69 | 21.38 | 1.7% | ||||
| Dow | 11,384.21 | 152.25 | 1.4% | ||||
| DowInGOLD$s | $255.44 | $ 4.91 | 2.0% | ||||
| Dow in GOLD oz. | 12.357 | 0.238 | 2.0% | ||||
| Dow in SILVER oz | 640.10 | 10.44 | 1.7% | ||||
| US Dollar Index | 72.98 | 0.26 | 0.4% | ||||
| NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. | |||||||
| To figure our retail selling price, multiply "Ask" price | |||||||
| by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiply | |||||||
| "Bid" by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, | |||||||
| higher commissions to very small orders. | |||||||
| GOLD: | Fine Tr.Oz. | BID | ASK | Ask,$/oz. | |||
| American Eagle | 1 | 945.25 | 952.25 | 952.25 | |||
| 1/2 AE | 0.5 | 469.40 | 473.40 | 946.81 | |||
| 1/4 AE | 0.25 | 236.43 | 239.93 | 959.71 | |||
| 1/10 AE | 0.1 | 94.80 | 97.30 | 973.01 | |||
| Aust. 100 corona | 0.9802 | 893.15 | 900.15 | 918.34 | |||
| British sovereign | 0.2354 | 216.12 | 219.12 | 930.84 | |||
| French 20 franc | 0.1867 | 170.12 | 173.12 | 927.26 | |||
| Krugerrand | 1 | 919.48 | 929.48 | 929.48 | |||
| Maple Leaf | 1 | 917.64 | 924.64 | 924.64 | |||
| 1/2 Maple Leaf | 0.5 | 472.86 | 476.86 | 953.71 | |||
| 1/4 Maple Leaf | 0.25 | 237.58 | 241.08 | 964.31 | |||
| 1/10 ML | 0.1 | 95.72 | 98.22 | 982.22 | |||
| Mex 50 peso | 1.2057 | 1,098.54 | 1,107.04 | 918.17 | |||
| SILVER | Fine Tr.Oz. | BID | ASK | $/oz. | |||
| SilverDollarBags | 0.765 | 16,500 | 18,500 | 24.18 | |||
| 90%SlvrCoinBags | 0.715 | 12,395 | 12,645 | 17.68 | |||
| US 40% silver 1/2s | 0.295 | 4,937 | 5,062 | 17.16 | |||
| 100 oz..999 bar | 100 | 1,789 | 1,829 | 18.29 | |||
| 10 oz. .999 bar | 10 | 179.35 | 183.35 | 18.34 | |||
| 1 oz .999 rnd. | 1 | 17.94 | 18.34 | 18.34 | |||
| Am.Egl, 200oz. Min. | 1 | 18.85 | 19.54 | 19.54 | |||
| PLATINUM | Fine Tr.Oz. | BID | ASK | $/oz. | |||
| Plat. Am. Eagle | 1 | 1,940 | 1,954 | 1,954 | |||
| The Moneychanger | |||||||
| PO Box 178, Westpoint, Tennessee 38486 | |||||||
| (888)218-9226; (931)766-6066; fax (931)766-1128 | |||||||
| www.the-moneychanger.com | |||||||
| franklin@the-moneychanger.com | |||||||
| This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter | |||||||
| an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066.Sorry, no sales to Tennessee. | |||||||
| While we are on the telephone, I will lock in a price and give you a contract | |||||||
| number. That contract obliges me to sell and you to buy at that locked-in price, | |||||||
| regardless what later happens in the market. If you buy when gold stands at $300 | |||||||
| an ounce, whether it soars to $1,000 or drops to $100, you still bought it at the | |||||||
| price we fixed. If you sell when silver stands at $5.00, you still sold and I still bought | |||||||
| at that price whether silver rockets to the moon or it gets so cheap they start | |||||||
| paying people to haul it off in trucks like sand. | |||||||
| In other words, when you make a contract with us, I am giving you my word, and you | |||||||
| are giving me your word, that we will faithfully complete the contract. Just as when | |||||||
| you buy stocks or bonds, we cannot change or cancel the order once entered. | |||||||
| After you enter your order, you need to send us payment within forty-eight (48) | |||||||
| hours by personal check, United States Post Office (only) money order, or bank | |||||||
| wire. If you send a check (whether cashier's check, bank check, bank money | |||||||
| order or your personal check) we will hold shipment for fourteen (14) days to allow | |||||||
| the check to clear. Generally you will receive your order (shipped registered mail | |||||||
| or UPS) within three to four weeks from order entry. | |||||||
| Against bank wires we ship immediately upon receipt. | |||||||